Financial Model

AI-Powered Revenue Projections

Three-scenario analysis for AI service revenue streams — freelance, SaaS, and consulting

Prepared: February 2026 Model Version: 1.0 Basis: 30+ verified market sources Currency: USD

A = Assumption (editable input)

Calculated field

Total / Subtotal

Key output

Section 1: Key Assumptions

Parameter	Conservative	Base Case	Aggressive	Source / Basis
Market & Demand
Enterprise AI adoption rate	70%	78%	85%	McKinsey 2025
Companies increasing AI budgets	80%	88%	93%	PwC AI Survey
AI talent demand-to-supply ratio	2.5:1	3.2:1	4.0:1	Signify Technology
AI market CAGR (2025-2030)	22%	30.6%	38%	Grand View Research

Pricing & Rates
Hourly consulting rate	$100	$175	$300	Market median verified
Billable hours per week	10	20	30	Side hustle → full-time
Utilization rate	60%	75%	85%	Industry standard
SaaS monthly subscription	$29	$49	$99	Indie SaaS median
Project-based fee (per project)	$2,500	$5,000	$10,000	Small biz automation

Costs
Claude API cost (monthly)	$50	$150	$400	Anthropic pricing docs
Claude Pro subscription	$20	$20	$20	Fixed cost
Infrastructure (hosting, domain)	$20	$50	$100	Cloudflare/Vercel tier
Marketing / customer acquisition	$0	$100	$500	Organic → paid
Monthly churn rate (SaaS)	8%	5%	3%	Micro-SaaS benchmark

Section 2: Scenario A — AI-Augmented Consulting / Freelance

Metric	Month 1	Month 3	Month 6	Month 12	Year 2
Conservative Scenario ($100/hr, 10 hrs/wk, 60% utilization)
Gross billable hours	43	43	43	43	43
Effective hours (after utilization)	26	26	26	26	26
Monthly gross revenue	$2,600	$2,600	$2,600	$2,600	$2,600
Monthly costs (tools + infra)	($90)	($90)	($90)	($90)	($90)
Net monthly income	$2,510	$2,510	$2,510	$2,510	$2,510
Cumulative annual income	$2,510	$7,530	$15,060	$30,120	$60,240

Base Case ($175/hr, 20 hrs/wk, 75% utilization)
Gross billable hours	87	87	87	87	87
Effective hours (after utilization)	65	65	65	65	65
Monthly gross revenue	$11,375	$11,375	$11,375	$11,375	$11,375
Monthly costs (tools + infra)	($320)	($320)	($320)	($320)	($320)
Net monthly income	$11,055	$11,055	$11,055	$11,055	$11,055
Cumulative annual income	$11,055	$33,165	$66,330	$132,660	$265,320

Aggressive ($300/hr, 30 hrs/wk, 85% utilization)
Gross billable hours	130	130	130	130	130
Effective hours (after utilization)	111	111	111	111	111
Monthly gross revenue	$33,300	$33,300	$33,300	$33,300	$33,300
Monthly costs (tools + infra)	($1,020)	($1,020)	($1,020)	($1,020)	($1,020)
Net monthly income	$32,280	$32,280	$32,280	$32,280	$32,280
Cumulative annual income	$32,280	$96,840	$193,680	$387,360	$774,720

Section 3: Scenario B — AI-Powered SaaS Product

Metric	Month 1	Month 3	Month 6	Month 12	Year 2
Base Case ($49/mo subscription, 5% monthly churn)
New customers acquired	5	15	30	50	75
Active subscribers (cumulative, net of churn)	5	33	112	303	627
Monthly recurring revenue (MRR)	$245	$1,617	$5,488	$14,847	$30,723
API costs (~$0.15/user/mo)	($1)	($5)	($17)	($45)	($94)
Infrastructure costs	($70)	($70)	($100)	($150)	($250)
Marketing spend	($100)	($100)	($200)	($300)	($500)
Net monthly income	$74	$1,442	$5,171	$14,352	$29,879
Gross margin	30.2%	89.2%	94.2%	96.7%	97.3%
Annual recurring revenue (ARR)	$2,940	$19,404	$65,856	$178,164	$368,676

Break-Even Analysis
Fixed monthly costs	$170 — $750 (scales with growth)
Revenue per subscriber (net of API)	$48.85/mo
Break-even subscribers	4 subscribers (at minimum cost) — 16 subscribers (at scale costs)
Months to break-even	Month 1 (costs are negligible relative to even small revenue)

Section 4: Scenario C — Project-Based AI Development

Metric	Conservative	Base Case	Aggressive
Average project fee	$2,500	$5,000	$10,000
Projects per month	1	2	3
Hours per project	20	30	40
Effective hourly rate	$125/hr	$167/hr	$250/hr
Monthly gross revenue	$2,500	$10,000	$30,000
Monthly costs	($90)	($220)	($520)
Monthly net income	$2,410	$9,780	$29,480
Annual net income	$28,920	$117,360	$353,760
Gross margin	96.4%	97.8%	98.3%

Section 5: Path Comparison Matrix

Revenue Path	Time to First $	Year 1 (Base)	Year 2 (Base)	Startup Cost	Gross Margin	Scalability	Risk Level
AI Consulting / Freelance	2-4 weeks	$132,660	$265,320	$90/mo	97%	Low	Low
AI SaaS Product	2-4 months	$178,164	$368,676	$170/mo	94%	High	High
Project-Based Dev	2-6 weeks	$117,360	$234,720	$90/mo	98%	Medium	Medium
AI Agent Development	1-3 months	$180,000	$450,000	$220/mo	65%	High	Medium
Data Analysis Service	1-2 weeks	$60,000	$120,000	$70/mo	96%	Low	Low

Section 6: Opportunity Cost Analysis

Factor	Current State	With AI Skills (12 months)	Delta
Hourly rate (accounting)	$50-$80/hr	$120-$200/hr	+$70-$120/hr (+140%)
Time to complete analysis project	20 hours	4-6 hours	70-80% reduction
Projects handleable per month	2-3	8-12	+300% throughput
Annual side income potential	$0	$30,000-$130,000	Net new revenue
Career trajectory premium	Flat	+40-60% salary premium	$82K-$124K (on $206K AI eng avg)

ASSUMPTION All assumption inputs (yellow rows) are based on verified market data from 30+ sources including McKinsey, Gartner, MIT, Anthropic, and indie maker surveys. Modify these to fit your specific situation.
SaaS MODEL Subscriber growth uses compound acquisition with monthly churn applied. Formula: Active_n = (Active_n-1 × (1 - churn)) + New_n. Churn rates benchmarked against Freemius Micro-SaaS 2025 report (median 5.4%).
CONSULTING Utilization rate accounts for non-billable time (prospecting, admin, learning). Industry standard is 65-80% for independent consultants. Hours calculated as: weekly hrs × 4.33 weeks/month × utilization rate.
API COSTS Based on Claude Haiku 4.5 ($1/$5 per 1M tokens) for SaaS use cases. Average request ~500 tokens input, ~500 tokens output = ~$0.003/request. At 50 requests/user/month = $0.15/user/month. Batch processing (50% discount) not applied in base case.
TAXES All figures are pre-tax. Self-employment tax (US) is approximately 15.3% on net income. Federal + state income tax varies. For planning, assume 30-40% total effective tax rate on net income.
SCALABILITY Consulting revenue is linearly bounded by available hours. SaaS revenue compounds with subscriber growth. Project-based scales with team size or efficiency. These structural differences matter more than Year 1 comparisons.